Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 3.203250 3.454305 3.737837 4.087221 4.514466 5.032209 5.728779
2025-02-23 2.806089 3.110175 3.476196 3.964456 4.626596 5.545902 7.048384
2025-03-02 2.616501 2.953978 3.378535 3.979198 4.865015 6.258154 9.085177
2025-03-09 2.471382 2.826447 3.287512 3.969420 5.045679 6.940101 11.835874
2025-03-16 2.333662 2.691169 3.165092 3.887341 5.083764 7.383416 14.908228
2025-03-23 2.272346 2.648653 3.161170 3.974568 5.418388 8.608679 26.413594
2025-03-30 2.161230 2.529513 3.036399 3.853992 5.347743 8.866152 37.737991
2025-04-06 2.059739 2.417114 2.912342 3.719651 5.223400 8.928358 54.481728
2025-04-13 1.982459 2.333800 2.824658 3.635226 5.181646 9.221120 159.113906
2025-04-20 1.953432 2.315606 2.830800 3.706593 5.473477 10.835961 NaN
2025-04-27 1.946493 2.327523 2.882098 3.861397 5.997204 14.335890 NaN
2025-05-04 1.908690 2.292668 2.858312 3.877931 6.203044 17.034817 NaN
2025-05-11 1.873332 2.261685 2.841654 3.912324 6.489390 22.129511 NaN
2025-05-18 1.810740 2.188127 2.753121 3.800728 6.348210 22.745474 NaN
2025-05-25 1.777581 2.156587 2.730136 3.814215 6.574331 30.977192 NaN
2025-06-01 1.742706 2.120812 2.697838 3.805280 6.734149 44.306210 NaN
2025-06-08 1.698133 2.068728 2.635913 3.730190 6.663149 51.455408 NaN
2025-06-15 1.684346 2.062299 2.648827 3.809985 7.141879 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 1.638579 2.005635 2.574760 3.699636 6.913165 3093.929863 NaN
2025-06-29 1.592595 1.947545 2.496493 3.576299 6.621357 197.405247 NaN
2025-07-06 1.556531 1.903746 2.440968 3.498577 6.487638 226.029020 NaN
2025-07-13 1.546925 1.899923 2.452456 3.564288 6.902933 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 1.549591 1.914880 2.496521 3.706423 7.717268 NaN NaN